Environmental and socio-economic consequences of forest carbon payments in Bolivia: Results of the OSIRIS-Bolivia model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35319/lajed.20142280Keywords:
Deforestation, REDD, Bolivia, simulation, impactsAbstract
Bolivia has significant potential to abate climate change by reducing deforestation. This opportunity presents economic and environmental tradeoffs. While these tradeoffs have been hotly debated, they have as yet been the subject of little quantitative analysis. We introduce the OSIRIS-Bolivia model to provide a quantitative basis for decision-making. OSIRIS-Bolivia is an Excel-based tool for analyzing the potential effects of incentive payments to reduce emissions from deforestation (REDD) in Bolivia. It is based on a spatial econometric model of deforestation in Bolivia during the period 2001-2005, and uses information on forest cover, deforestation rates, geographical conditions, and drivers of deforestation, including agricultural opportunity costs, for more than 120,000 pixels covering the whole country. OSIRIS-Bolivia is based on a partial equilibrium model in which reductions in deforestation in one region reduce the supply of agricultural products to the domestic market, which in turn causes an increase in the price of agricultural products, making conversion of land to agriculture more attractive and thus stimulating an increase in deforestation in other regions (leakage). The model can help answer questions such as: Where in Bolivia are carbon incentive payments most likely to result in reduced deforestation? Who are most likely to benefit from REDD? How much money will it take to reduce deforestation by a given amount? To what extent might transaction costs or preferences for agricultural income undermine the goals of the REDD program?
Downloads
References
Andersen, L. E., J. Busch, E. Curran, J. C. Ledezma y J. Mayorga (2012). Open Source Impacts of REDD+ Incentives Spreadsheet – Bolivia (OSIRIS-Bolivia). Version 2.0: <http://www.conservation.org/osiris>, Downloaded 1 March 2012.
Andersen, L. E., C. W. J. Granger, E. J. Reis, D. Weinhold y S. Wunder (2002). The Dynamics of Deforestation and Economic Growth in the Brazilian Amazon. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Andersen, L. E. (2006). “El impacto de los cambios en el uso de suelo sobre la economía en el departamento de Santa Cruz.” Development Research Working Paper Series Nº. 11/2006, Institute for Advanced Development Studies, La Paz, Bolivia, September.
Andersen, L. E. (2009). “Cambio climático en Bolivia: impactos sobre bosque y biodiversidad.” Development Research Working Paper Series Nº. 11/2009, Institute for Advanced Development Studies, La Paz, Bolivia, December.
Angelsen, A. y S. Wertz-Kanounnikoff (2008). Moving Ahead with REDD. CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia.
Antorini, C. y J. Sathaye (2007). “Assessing transaction costs of project-based greenhouse gas emissions trading”. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, January.
Barbier, E. B. (2001). “The Economics of Tropical Deforestation and Land Use: An Introduction to the Special Issue”, Land Economics 77(2), 155-171.
Bolivia (2009). “Estrategia nacional de bosque y cambio climático.” Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Agua. La Paz.
Borner, J. y S. Wunder (2008). “Paying for avoided deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: From cost assessment to scheme design.” International Forest Review, 10:496–511.
Busch, J., B. Strassburg, A. Cattaneo, R. Lubowski, A. Bruner, R. Rice, A. Creed, R. Ashton y F. Boltz (2009). “Comparing climate and cost impacts of reference levels for reducing emissions from deforestation.” Environmental Research Letters, 4:044006 (11 pp.). doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/044006.
Busch, J., R. Lubowski, F. Godoy, D. Juhn, K. Austin, J. Hewson, M. Steininger, M. Farid y F. Boltz (2012). “Structuring economic incentives to reduce emissions from deforestation in Indonesia.” PNAS, 109 (4) 1062-1067; published ahead of print January 9, 2012, doi:10.1073/pnas.1109034109
Butler, R., L. P. Koh y J. Ghazoul (2009). “REDD in the red: palm oil could undermine carbon payment schemes.” Conservation Letters 2:67-73.
Cortez, R., R. Saines, B. Griscom, M. Martin, D. De Deo, G. Fishbein, J.Kerkering y D. Marsh (2010). A Nested Approach to REDD+. Structuring effective and transparant incentive mechanisms for REDD+ implementation at multiple scales. The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA.
FAO/IIASA/ISRIC/ISSCAS/JRC (2009). Harmonized World Soil Database (version 1.1).FAO, Rome, Italy and IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.
FAO (2010). “Global Forest Resources Assessment 2010.” Forestry Paper Nº 163. Rome, Italy.
Golub, A., T. Hertel, H. Lee, S. Rose y B. Sohngen (2009). “The opportunity cost of land use and the global potential for greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture and forestry.” Resource and Energy Economics, 31(4), 299-319. doi:10.1016/j.reseneeco.2009.04.007
Grieg-Gran, M. (2006). The Cost of Avoiding Deforestation. Report prepared for the Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change. International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED). London, United Kingdom. 20 pp.
Gregersen, H., H. El Lakany, A. Karsenty y A. White (2010). Does the opportunity cost approach indicate the real cost of REDD+? Rights and realities of paying for REDD+.Rights and Resources Initiative. Washington, DC, USA.
Ibisch, P. L., S. G. Beck, B. Gerkmann y A. Carretero A. (2003). “Ecoregiones y ecosistemas.” En: P. L. Ibisch y G. Mérida (eds.) (2003) Biodiversidad: La riqueza de Bolivia. Estado de conocimiento y conservación. Ministerio de Desarrollo Sostenible. Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia: Editorial FAN.
Ibisch, P. L. y G. Mérida (2003). Biodiversidad: la riqueza de Bolivia. Estado de conocimiento y conservación. Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia: Editorial FAN.
Jemio, L. C. (2011). Cuentas ambientales: medioambiente y economía en Bolivia. La Paz: Plural editores.
Killeen, T. J., V. Calderon, L. Soria, B. Quezada, M. K. Steininger, G. Harper, L. A. Solórzano y C. J. Tucker (2007). “Thirty Years of Land-cover Change in Bolivia.” Ambio, 36(7): 600-606.
Killeen, T. J., A. Guerra, M. Calzada, L. Correa, V. Calderon, L. Soria, B. Quezada y M. K. Steininger (2008). “Total historical land-use change in eastern Bolivia: Who, where, when, and how much?” Ecology and Society, 13(1): 36. (URL: ttp://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art36/).
Kindermann, G.E., M. Obersteiner, B. Sohngen, J. Sathaye, K. Andrasko, E. Rametsteiner, B. Schlamadinger, S. Wunder y R. Beach. (2008). “Global cost estimates of reducing carbon emissions through avoided deforestation.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105(30):10302-10307.
De Koning, F., M. Aguiñaga, M. Bravo, M. Chiu, M. Lascano, T. Lozada y L. Suarez (2011). “Bridging the gap between forest conservation and poverty alleviation: the Ecuadorian Socio Bosque program.” Environmental Science & Policy, 14(5): 531–542.
Leguía, D., A. Malky y J. C. Ledezma (2011). “Análisis del costo de oportunidad de la deforestación evitada en el noroeste amazónico de Bolivia.” Conservation Strategy Fund. La Paz.
Lubowski R. N., a. Plantinga y R. N. Stavins (2006). “Land-use change and carbon sinks: Econometric estimation of the carbon sequestration supply function.” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 51(2):135–152.
McCann, L., B. Colby, K. W. Easter, A. Kasterine y K. Kuperan (2005). “Transaction cost measurement for evaluating environmental policies.” Ecological Economics, 52(4): 527-542.
Murray, B. C. (2008). Leakage From an Avoided Deforestation Compensation Policy. Nicholas Institute, Durham, NC.
Murray, B. C., R. Lubowski y B. Sohngen (2009). Including International Forest Carbon Incentives in Climate Policy: Understanding the Economics. Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, Duke University, Durham, NC.
Naidoo, R. y T. Iwamura (2007). “Global-scale mapping of economic benefits from agricultural lands: Implications for conservation priorities.” Biological Conservation, 140(1-2): 40-49.
Naucler, T. y P. A. Enkvist (2009). Pathways to a low-carbon economy: Version 2 of the global greenhouse gas abatement cost curve. McKinsey & Company. 192 pp; Disponible en: https://solutions.mckinsey.com/ClimateDesk/default.aspx.
Nowicki, C., A. Ley, R. Caballero, J.H. Sommer, W. Barthlott y P.L. Ibisch (2004). “Extrapolating distribution ranges - BIOM 1.1., a computerized bio-climatic model for the extrapolation of species ranges and diversity patterns.” En: R. Vasquez Ch. y P.L. Ibisch (eds.): Orchids of Bolivia. Diversity and conservation status. Vol. 2.Laeliinae, Polystachinae, Sobraliinae with update and complementation of the Pleurothallidinae. Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia: Editorial FAN, pp. 39-68.
Pagiola, S. y B. Bosquet (2009). “Estimating the costs of REDD at the country level.” Forest Carbon Partnership Facility. Disponible en: URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18062/1/MPRA_paper_18062.pdf.
Pacheco, P. (2010). “Análisis de los impactos de la legislación boliviana de tierras, forestal y medio ambiente sobre la deforestación y degradación forestal”. Estudio elaborado en el marco de la preparación de RPP y financiado por GTZ.
Pedroni, L., M. Dutschke, C. Streck y M. Estrada-Porrúa (2009). “Creating incentives for avoiding further deforestation: The nested approach.” Climate Policy, 9:207–220.
Pfaff, A., S. Kerr, L. Lipper, R. Cavatassi, B. Davis, J. Hendy y G. A. Sanchez-Azofeifa (2007). “Will buying tropical forest carbon benefit the poor? Evidence from Costa Rica.” Land Use Policy, 24:600–610.
Plantinga, A.J., T. Mauldin y D. J. Miller (1999) “An econometric analysis of the costs of sequestering carbon in forests.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 81:812–824.
Rodríguez-Zúñiga, J. M. (2003). “Pago por los servicios ambientales: la experiencia de Costa Rica.” Revista internacional de silvicultura e industrias forestales, 54(1), 31-33.
Roper, J. M. (2003). “Bolivian Legal Reforms and Local Indigenous Organizations: Opportunities and Obstacles in a Lowland Municipality.” Latin American Perspectives, 30(1): 139-161.
Ruesch, A., Y H. K. Gibbs (2008). New IPCC Tier-1 Global Biomass Carbon Map for the Year 2000. Disponible en línea from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (URL: http://cdiac.ornl.gov), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee.
Sangermano, F., J. Toledano y J. R. Eastman (2012). “Land cover change in the Bolivian Amazon and its implications for REDD+ and endemic biodiversity.” Landscape Ecology, Online First. doi 10.1007/s10980-012-9710-y.
Soares-Filho, B., P. Moutinho, D. Nepstad, A. Anderson, H. Rodrigues, R. Garcia, L. Dietzsch, F. Merry, M. Bowman, L. Hissa, R. Silvestrini y C. Maretti (2010). “Role of Brazilian Amazon protected areas in climate change mitigation.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107(24): 10821-10826.
Sohngen, B. y S. Brown (2004). “Measuring leakage from carbon projects in open economies: a stop timber harvesting project in Bolivia as a case study.” Canadian Journal of Forestry Research, 34: 829-839.
Stavins, R. N. (1999). “The costs of carbon sequestration: A revealed-preference approach.” American Economic Review, 89(4), 994-1009.
Stern, N. (2006). Stern Review: The economics of climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
Strassburg, B., K. Turner, B. Fisher, R. Schaeffer y A. Lovett (2009). “Reducing emissions from deforestation: The “combined incentives” mechanism and empirical simulations.” Global Environmental Change, 19(2): 265-278.
Venter, O., E. Meijaard, H. Possingham, R. Dennis, D. Sheil, S. Wich, L. Hovani y K. Wilson (2009). ”Carbon payments as a safeguard for threatened tropical mammals.” Conservation Letters, 2:123-129.
Warr, P. y A. Yusuf (2011). “Reducing Indonesia’s deforestation-based greenhouse gas emissions.” Australian Journal of Agricultural Resource Economics, 55: 297–321.
Wooldridge, J. M. (2002). Econometric Analysis of Cross-Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
World Bank Institute (2011). Estimating the Opportunity Costs of REDD. The World Bank, Washington, DC.
