Short-Run Oil Price Drivers: South America`s Energy Integration
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35319/lajed.200912166Keywords:
West Texas Intermediate, Henry Hub, Energy Integration, Conjuncture Analysis, Signal Extraction, Underlying Evolution, Underlying Growth, ARIMA Models, Outliers, market fundamentalsAbstract
The aim of this paper seeks to analyse how the energy prices cojuntural behaviour and structural conditions affect the short-run and mid-run overview of the energy integration process in South America (SA). For these porpoise we - first describe the world-wide energy agenda and the effect of current oil price swings and the corresponding natural gas adjustment - next we discuss about the regional stakeholders perspective of energy integration. We used two methodological approaches - first we calculate the oil prices according to their structural conditions or fundamental - second we detect the right ARIMA model with outliers and calendar effects for the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price and the Henry Hub (HH) natural gas price. With this information we develop an analysis proposal based on their underlying growth rate and inertia.
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