Dynamic Elasticities of Tax Revenue: Short run and Long run Evidences for Bolivia (1990-2018)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35319/lajed.201931348Keywords:
Tax Revenue Elasticities, Error Correction Mechanism, Asymmetric Models, Dynamic Models, Tax Revenue Volatility and GrowthAbstract
The main objective of this paper lies over the estimation of tax revenue elasticities in the longrun and the short-run for Bolivian total tax revenue and by component through an Error Correction Mechanism including possible asymmetries of tax revenue elasticities in the short-run and asymmetries over the adjustment parameter. Also in this paper, the relevant literature was systematized. Using quarterly data of total tax revenue without hydrocarbons direct tax, VAT (domestic), VAT (import), Transaction Tax and Customs Tax. Most of the estimations shows asymmetric and elastic responses evidences of the tax revenue in the shortrun (volatil) concluding, at most, in a progressive tax system in the long-run with significative asymmetric responses (countercyclical and procyclical) in the short-run.
Downloads
References
Banegas, Roger A. y Gonzáles Vergara, Reyna (2015). “Institutional Changes and Cyclical Transition in the Fiscal Stance for Bolivia (2003-2011). Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Económico, LAJED, (23), 67-95.
Bilquees, Faiz (2004). “Elasticity and Buoyancy of the Tax System in Pakistan”. The Pakistan Development Review, 43(1), 73-93.
Brooks, Chris (2008). Introductory Econometrics for Finance. Cambridge University Press, New York.
Bruce, Donald,; Fox, William F. y Tuttle, M. H. (2006). “Tax Base Elasticities: A Multi State Analysis of Long-Run and Short-Run Dynamics”. Southern Economic Association, Southern Economic Journal, 73(2), 315-341.
Caballero Martínez, Rolando y Ávalos Arciénega, Ruth Alejandra. (2017). “Elasticidades tributarias de corto y largo plazo en Bolivia, 1990- 2016”. Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales ‘José Ortiz Mercado’ (IIES-JOM), Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Administrativas y Financieras, Universidad Autónoma Gabriel René Moreno Economía coyuntural. Revista de temas de coyuntura y perspectivas, 2(2), 31-103.
Cerezo, Sergio M. y Ticona, Ulises A. (2017). “Bolivianización, demanda de dinero y señoreaje en Bolivia: evidencia empírica y una propuesta teórica”. Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Económico, LAJED (27), 7-37.
Choudhry, Nurun N. (1979). “Measuring the Elasticity of Tax Revenue: A Divisia Index Approach”. IMF Staff Papers Palgrave Macmillan, 26(1), 87-122.
Cossío Muñoz Reyes, Fernando (2001). El sistema tributario y sus implicaciones en la reducción de la pobreza. Instituto de Investigaciones Socio Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana, Documento de Trabajo Nº 7/01, La Paz.
Creedy, John y Gemmell, Norman (2004). "The Income Elasticity of Tax Revenue: Estimates for Income and Consumtion Taxes in the United Kingdom". Institute for Fiscal Studies 25(1), 55–77.
Engle, Robert F. y Granger, C. W. J. (1987). “Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”. The Econometric Society. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.
Fernández, Carlos C.; Chavarría, Marco. O. y Rodríguez, David C. (2011). “Ingresos fiscales y elasticidades tributarias: estimación de las elasticidades tributarias de corto y largo plazo para los principales impuestos”. Economía y Sociedad, 16(39-40), 47-61. Disponible en: http://www.revistas.una.ac.cr/economia.
Fricke, Hans y Süssmuth, Bernd (2014). “Growth and Volatility of Tax Revenues in Latin America”. World Development, 54(C) 114-138.
Gobierno de Bolivia. Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas Públicas (2018). “Ingresos y gastos tributarios”. Boletín Económico, 4(8).
Gujarati, Damodar N. y Porter, Dawn C. (2010). Econometría. México: Mc Graw Hill. 5taedición.
Havranek, Tomas; Irsova, Zuzana y Schwarz, Jiri (2015). “Dynamic Elasticities of Tax Revenue: Evidence from the Czech Republic”. Working Papers IES 2015/23, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies.
Hulten, Charles R. (1973). “Divisia Index Numbers. The Econometric Society”. Econometrica, 41(6),1017-1025.
Koester, Gerrit B. y Priesmeier, Christoph (2012). “Estimating Dynamic Tax Revenue Elasticities for Germany”. Deutsche Bundesbank, Wilhelm-Epstein-Straße 14, 60431 Frankfurt am Main. Deutsche Bundesbank – Eurosystem. Discussion Paper (November, 23/2012).
---------- (2017). Revenue elasticities in euro area countries: An analysis of long-run and shortrun dynamics. European Central Bank, ECB, Working Paper Nº 1989 ( January 2017).
Leuthold, Jane H. y N’ Guessan, Tchetche (1986). “Tax Buoyancy vs. Elasticity in a Developing Economy”. College of Commerce and Business Administration, Bureau Economic and Business Research University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Bookstacks. BEBR Faculty, Working Paper Nº 1272.
Lipsey, Richard G. y Steiner, Peter O. (1975). Economics. Harper & Row Publishers, 4t Edition.
Mansfield, Charles Y. (1972). “Elasticity and Buoyancy of a Tax System: A Method Applied to Paraguay”. IMF Staff Papers Palgrave Macmillan, 19(2), 425-446.
Otálora Uriquizu, Carlos (2009). Economía fiscal. La Paz: Plural.
Mukarram, Fauzia (2001). “Elasticity and Buoyancy of Major Taxes in Pakistan”. Department of Economics, University of the Punjab. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 39(1), 75-86.
Newey, Whitney K. y West, Kenneth D. (1987). “A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix”. The Econometric Society. Econometrica, 55(3), 703-708.
Nichols, Mark W. y Tosun, Mehmet Serkan (2008). “The Income Elasticity of Gross Casino Revenues: Short-Run and Long-Run Estimates”. National Tax Association. National Tax Journal, 61(4), Part 1, 635-652.
Prest, A. R. (1962). “The Sensitivity of the Yield of Personal Income Tax in The United Kingdom. Wiley on behalf of the Royal Economic Society”. The Economic Journal, 72(287), 576-596.
Ritter, Lawrence S. y Silber, William L. (1974). Principles of Money, Banking , and Financial Markets. Basic Books, Inc., New York, 1st Edition.
Sichel, Werner y Eckstein, Peter (1974). Basic Economic Concepts. Rand McNally College Publishing Company, Chicago, 1st Edition.
Singer, Neil M. (1968). “The Use of Dummy Variables in Estimation the Income Elasticity of State Income-Tax Revenues”. National Tax Association. National Tax Journal, 21(2), 200-204.
Stock, James H. y Watson, Mark W. (1993). “A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems”. The Econometric Society. Econometrica, 61(4), 783-820.
Tanzi, Vito (1978). “Inflation, Real Tax Revenue, and the Case for Inflationary Finance: Theory with an Application to Argentina”. IMF Staff Papers Palgrave Macmillan, 25(3), 417-451.
Timsina, Neelam (2007). “Tax Elasticity and Buoyancy in Nepal: A Revisit”. NRB Economic Review, vol. 19, 9-21.
Wolswijk, Guido. (2009). The short- and long-run tax revenue response to changes in tax bases. European Central Bank, Economics Bulletin, (29)3, 1960-1970 (August 17).